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Research

Working Papers

1. Synthetic Blips: Generalizing Synthetic Controls for Dynamic Treatment Effects
   with Anish Agarwal, Sukjin Han, Dwaipayan Saha, and Vasilis Syrgkanis · submitted
   Summary

   Export credit agencies support firms through insurance and loans, often repeatedly and based on past performance. This paper asks whether they could achieve better export outcomes by allocating support differently. We develop “synthetic blips,” a machine-learning-based method that generalizes synthetic controls to estimate the effects of sequential adaptive treatments. Applying it to Korean firm-level data, we find that alternative allocations could have raised exports substantially at lower cost, and we learn rules for targeting support to new firms.

2. Trade Liberalization and Product Dynamics within Firm: Role of Competition and Market Expansion
   with Jung Hur
   Summary

   Under trade liberalization, firms face tougher competition at home and larger markets abroad. Exploiting the Korea–US FTA, under which import and export tariff cuts were largely unrelated across products, we show that import competition leads firms to narrow their product lines, while better export access leads them to expand, mainly in export-oriented industries. Product efficiency, not tariff changes, drives which products firms drop, add, or expand.

3. The Missing Middle in Product Price Distribution
   with Pao-Li Chang and Xin Yi
   Summary

   Using U.S. census and Nielsen retail scanner data for 2006–2017, we document a “missing middle” in both the income distribution and the price distribution of consumer goods. A shrinking middle-income population reduces the market share of mid-priced products, especially in densely populated areas. Ignoring this demand-side channel understates the rise in the cost of living, particularly for middle-income households.

Publications

1. From Local to Global: Understanding Shifts in Production Processes
   with Jung Hur · Applied Economics Letters, 2026, 33(8), 1158–1163
2. How Do Export Credit Services Shape Firm Growth
   with Jung Hur · The World Economy, 2025, 48(2), 214–237
3. Do Environmental Regulations Affect FDI Decisions? The Pollution Haven Hypothesis Revisited
   with Almas Heshmati · Science and Public Policy, 2021, 48(1), 122–131
4. Do Non-exporting Plants Benefit from Sibling Plants?
   with Hyunbae Chun, Jung Hur and Nyeong Seon Son · Asian Economic Journal, 2019, 33(3), 221–234
5. Occupational Composition within Multinational Enterprises: Evidence from Korean Employer-Employee Matched Data
   with Jung Hur and Taehyun Ahn · Global Economic Review, 2019, 48(2), 144–160
6. The Economics of South Korean Demographics
   with Almas Heshmati · Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, 2019
7. Industrial Proximity and Vertical Integration of Multinational Firms: Evidence from Korean Firm-Level Data
   with Jung Hur · Journal of Korea Trade, 2018, 22(1), 50–67
8. Economic Performance of Global Value Chain Participation: Evidence from Plant-level Data of Korean Manufacturing Sectors (in Korean)
   with Jung Hur and Yongdae Lee · The Korean Journal of Economic Studies, 2018, 66(3), 43–66
9. Market Expansion of Small-Format Chain Stores under Sunday Closing Laws in Korea (in Korean)
   with Jisoo Kang, Hyoung-goo Kang and Hailey Hayeon Joo · The Korean Journal of Industrial Organization, 2016, 24(2), 27–54

Book Chapters and Edited Volumes

1. Globalization as a Path to Environmental Sustainability
   in R. Brinkmann (ed.), The Palgrave Handbook of Practical Sustainability, Springer Nature, 2025
2. Population Aging in Korea: The Fertility Rate and Welfare of the Elderly
   with Almas Heshmati · in S. I. Rajan (ed.), Handbook of Aging, Health and Public Policy, Springer, 2023
3. Environmental Regulation in Asia
   in R. Brinkmann (ed.), The Palgrave Handbook of Global Sustainability, Springer Nature, 2022
4. Economic Growth and Development in Ethiopia
   co-edited with Almas Heshmati · Springer, 2018

Work in Progress

1. Dynamics of Multinational Production
   with Jung Hur and Frederic Warzynski
2. Do Environmental Provisions in Trade Agreements Matter? Evidence from Text Analysis
3. Optimal Allocation of Export Credit Support
   with Sungwon Lee, Sukjin Han and Jung Hur
4. What Happens to Domestic Employment When Firms Go Abroad?

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Teaching

University of Bristol

*Nominated for the Outstanding Personal Tutoring / Academic Support Award, 2024

2025/26	International Trade (Undergraduate) Economics (Undergraduate) Summer Dissertation Supervision (Graduate)
2024/25	Economics (Graduate) International Trade (Undergraduate) Applied Economics Dissertation Supervision (Undergraduate)
2023/24	Economics (Graduate) International Trade (Undergraduate) Applied Economics Dissertation Supervision (Undergraduate) Summer Dissertation Supervision (Graduate)
2022/23	Intermediate Microeconomics (Undergraduate) Environmental Economics (Undergraduate) Applied Economics Dissertation Supervision (Undergraduate) Summer Dissertation Supervision (Graduate)
2021/22	Intermediate Microeconomics (Undergraduate) Environmental Economics (Undergraduate) Public Economics (Undergraduate) Summer Dissertation Supervision (Graduate)
2020/21	Economics (Graduate) Mathematics for Economics (Undergraduate) International Economics (Undergraduate) Summer Dissertation Supervision (Graduate)